Impacto de las remesas del exterior sobre el tipo de cambio real en el Perú del 2007 al 2019
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Authors
Caparó Salas, Francis ValeriaAdvisors
Tenorio Urcia, Juan JoséIssue Date
2023-02-06
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El objetivo de la presente investigación es analizar el impacto de las remesas sobre el tipo de cambio real. El crecimiento significativo de envío de remesas provenientes de Estados Unidos, ha favorecido a subregiones con mayor presencia migratoria; y al incremento de los niveles de remuneraciones, empleo y masa salarial de emigrantes y de sus familias receptoras de remesas, no obstante, la entrada masiva ha provocado variaciones significativas en el tipo de cambio real, influyendo en el costo de oportunidad de sustituir moneda extranjera por moneda nacional. Ahora frente a la poca existencia de trabajos empíricos de este tema, la presente investigación enfoca el caso a la economía peruana para el periodo 2007-2019. Para este fin, la investigación empleará el modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos (VAR), con datos mensuales. Sus principales conclusiones son: la entrada de remesas aprecia el tipo de cambio real, y este choque genera una relación de complementariedad con la demanda monetaria.The objective of this research is to analyse the impact of remittances on the real exchange rate. The significant growth in the sending of remittances from the United States has favoured sub-regions with a greater migratory presence; and the increase in the levels of remuneration, employment and salary mass of emigrants and their families receiving remittances, however, the massive entry has caused significant variations in the real exchange rate, influencing the opportunity cost of substituting foreign currency for national currency. Now, faced with the scarce existence of empirical works on this topic, the present investigation focuses the case on the Peruvian economy for the period 2007-2019. For this purpose, the research will use the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, with monthly data. Its main conclusions are: the inflow of remittances appreciates the real exchange rate, and this shock generates a complementary relationship with monetary demand.
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