Análisis comparativo del nuevo proyecto canal de Nicaragua frente al actual Canal de Panamá: beneficio económico e impacto en el comercio internacional del Perú

Abstract

The increase in international trade and the signing of multiple international treaties between countries leads to a high demand for trade, which leads to the expansion of the Panamá Canal to try to calm this demand. However, currently in the face of growing Asian markets, especially China and India cause freight transport to skyrocket, creating larger ships, which carry more containers so an alternate route is needed. With this in mind, the construction of the Nicaragua Canal was begun in 2014, much larger and deeper than the enlarged Panama Canal. Before this, the following question is asked: Would the construction of the Nicaragua Canal, in front of the Panama Canal, benefit or not for Peru? So we developed a comparative analysis on the project of the new Nicaragua channel, measuring the possible economic benefit and impact of the international logistics chain of Peru. The methodology of the study is qualitative and quantitative, that is, interviews were conducted in depth and updated statistical data were analyzed so that a result can be projected with the Nicaragua channel completed. The interviews were conducted with representatives of shipping companies in Panama, Peru and Nicaragua, where they basically highlight the expected benefits that would be obtained from the new channel and the ambitious project. In the quantitative part, it was possible to observe that the Nicaraguan canal would have lower tolls than the Panama Canal, its expansion could not alleviate the demand that was becoming bigger, in turn, the costs of the shipping companies decrease as the size increases of the ship, and that probably, by 2025, Peruvian port capacity would not be able to receive the amount of TEU that is planned for that date, with which it is concluded that the Nicaragua canal project would bring benefits to Peru , A greater commercial offer both for importers and for exporters, according to the projections that were made. In addition, therefore, Peru would have to generate the conditions to receive ships of great loads, that is to say, that the infrastructure has to be improved to be on par with what is coming.