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  • An empirical application of a stochastic volatility model with GH skew Student's t -distribution to the volatility of Latin-American stock returns

    Lengua Lafosse, Patricia; Rodríguez, Gabriel; (Elsevier B.V., 2018-08)
    Using daily stocks returns data of a set of Latin-American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru) for the sample period 1996:01–2013:12, we estimate a stochastic volatility model incorporating both leverage effects and skewed heavy-tailed disturbances through of the GH Skew Student's t-distribution based on Bayesian estimation method proposed by Nakajima and Omori (2012). Two alternative models are estimated, one using an alternative Skew Student's t-distribution and the other using a symmetric Student's t-distribution. The results suggest the presence of leverage effects in all markets except for Peru where the evidence is unclear. In addition, there is evidence of asymmetries and heavy tails in the Argentina and S&P500 markets while in the other countries there is no robust evidence of such characteristics. Using the Bayes factor, the results indicate that the SVGHSkewt model dominates the other two models for the cases of Peru, Argentina, Brazil and S&P500 whereas the simple SVt model is preferred for the markets of Mexico and Chile. Similar findings are obtained after performing a robustness analysis regarding the priors of the parameters associated with the skewness and the tails of the distribution.
    Acceso restringido temporalmente
  • Tracking Exchange Rate Management in Latin America

    Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC) (Elsevier B.V., 2015-03-18)
    The exchange rate is one of the most important prices in any open economy. Tracking deviations from its long-run value may provide important information for policymakers. One way to track such deviations is to examine numerical patterns in exchange rates to see if the patterns appear to have been subject to some degree of policy management. Following this approach, we use Benford’s Law as our base case for free-floating exchange rates. Benford’s Law argues that the frequence of the appearance of numerals finds 1’s more frequent, than 2’s, than 3’s, etc., and this established statistical patterns has been verified and used in research tests in many scientific fields. We apply our forensic approach to exchange rates, computing the distribution of exchange-rate observed values and comparing them with those of Benford’s Law. We document such cases for 15 Latin American countries. Latin American countries are small open economies that are characterized for having different degrees of dollarization and intervention in the forex market, primary based on US dollar transactions. This is an alternative view of how these characteristics play a role with respect to an implied equilibrium exchange rate.
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